Monday 27 April 2015

Minors make the runnng

This addled election has become so confusing that no one in their right mind can now predict the result and those pundits who have dared a guess are about evenly divided between a Tory minority and a Labour one. That confusion arises because it's the minor parties not the majors who are making the running at this late stage.

The Tory strategy was to rely on abuse of Miliband and predictions of red ruin if Labour won. That failed to frighten so they began to trundle out all sorts of tax cuts and  and promises of instant Nirvana which weren't believed leaving dire predictions of Sturgeon dominating a Miliband government and splitting the country up

Labour relied on a 35% strategy winning a few seats and relying on the bias in the electoral system to put it into power by gaining business support through promising to stay in the EU and be a cautious, debt reducing,government. Then came the threat of loosing its Scottish seats to the SNP which would knock away the base of its majority, a particularly potent threat because Labour was n't planning to make a big effort to win back seats it lost last time like Cleethorpes, Brigg and Goole or Calder Valley, none of them the focus of frantic campaigning.

Result? The two majors deadlocked and the Tories were reduced to a frantic attack on the SNP which were suddenly portrayed as barely human uncivilised and a threat to everything English and kilted killers set to sponge on London .,the City and the excessive taxes paid by honest Englishmen.

So the initiative passed to the minors who've suddenly come to dominate the scene as the majors argued about what they'd do with seats they hadn't yet won and probably won't.With his usual sense of fun  Alec Salmond began to tweet the toes of the great by announcing what he'd make a minority Labour government do,Farage began to intimate tha he'd prefer the Tories to Labour and Cleggie  sanctimoniously  set out his terms for a coalition he wasn't going to get from anyone while the Greens prattled on endlessly about all the sensible things they were going to do  but on another planet .

A touching spectacle  but none of it bears much relationship to reality. UKIP is fading with Farage's health  and though its vote will go up because they're contesting more seats they'll probably only win Clacton,whose MP is a marvellous maverick not a natural UKIP churl. The Liberal parliamentary team will be halved and the SNP won't win as many seats as it claims.So net minor party representation n the new house will probably be much the same as in the last.

It's fun for journalists and other desperate Tories to speculate on who will dance with whom but it's a waste of time until we know the numbers and particularly those of the two majors. Whoever has the most MPs has first priority bit whoever' second is in with a chance of it can collect more allies and supporters .Whatever's said now is totally meaningless until we have the numbers

Once we have the politicians will sort out the dancing partners. It may take weeks . They may have to eat words . It won't be as easy as it was last time when Cleggie and co were eager for office and prepared to sell out on anything that stood in the way. But politicians are there to decide these things when the electorate doesn't..So we should shut up and let them get on with it.

But rejoice too.A new system of multi party politics is being born It comes late to Britain which has always been used to strong one party government and got it even after 2010 when the Tories didn't win but were propped up by Cleggie happy to help them to do their dirty work 

Since multi party politics are clearly here to stay because people are never going t for back into two party boxes again the sooner we adjust to it by int reducing proportional representation like Germany the better. 

Then the parties will have to listen to the people instead of just imposing whatever ideological whims, or wars they happen to want at the moment.

Tories want Cameron to show more passion. That's not his bag. He prefers things to be handed him on a plate and his skill is he can roll with every punch and adjust to whatever his barmy party want.

He has no ideology. Chaps don't have things like that,and his economics are given him by Osborne. They've been disastrous but that's hardly his fault.Besides have any of his critics given a thought to the mess that lies ahead? He knows it and may not even want to carry on. Go now and leave the party to its lunatics.

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