Since the parties have produced nothing which sets the
election alight it's going to be decided by a
basic thug to thug slugging match between the parties each recruiting its
diminished vote on the old basic recruitment lines : middle versus working
class, north versus south, rich versus poor. The gimmicks have failed and
settled conditioning takes over bringing forward the old question of whose
supporters are most likely to vote.
When people are confused about politics, as they certainly
are now, they'll fall back onto conditioned reflexes. Most electors are
programmed (though more weakly now than ever before) to one side or the other
so if they're enthused or dutiful enough to get to the polls they'll vote that
way, though probably in diminishing numbers on both sides. No sign there of
the shy Conservative factor which is supposed to have produced a last minute
surge to John Major in 1992.
Then there's the self interest pull. Wealth will always
do its duty by the Tories because they do more than their duty to wealth. But
the poor aren't necessarily so clear about their self interest and are less
likely to vote while small business is usually blind to the fact that demand is
always better under Labour than under the Tories because they see their self interest as
served by cuts in tax and regulation rather than the prosperity of their
customers.
Finally there's the traditional difference between the possessed and the dispossessed.
The Tories have lavished rewards on the possessed as house prices rose making
home owners happy but those wanting houses miserable, while the dispossessed
suffered from the cuts, the unemployment
and wage freeze, and the general austerity. Here again an advantage to the
Tories because the comfortable are more likely to vote while the uncomfortable
find it more difficult to get their act together.
Any judgement of the past five years should be against
the Tories because this Government has been a mess, wasting time and growth on
a cruel and unnecessary austerity which
has undermined the strength of the
economy.
Any judgement on the present recovery should go to the
Tories though they didn't produce it (the Bank of England did) and its not
firmly based
Any judgement on the future should go to Labour because
the prospect of massive cuts which the Tories wont specify must be damaging to
both the good society and demand and
investment in the economy
That's the choice. It's also the explanation of why the
two major parties are running neck and neck and will do so right up to the
wire, leaving the consequences of their indecision to be sorted out by the
politicians.
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