Friday 2 January 2015

Election 2015 or Election 1910?

My prediction, made six months ago, of a hung Parliament with Labour the largest single party and a second election necessary as a decider, as in 1974, has now been take up by so many of the parasitic pundit tittering that it's become an orthodoxy.

So I'd like to modify it. Richard Rose points out that the Tories will do better because they're second in so many Lib-Dem seats that the bursting of the Clegg bubble will throw their way. 

More important, the surge of those triumphant losers, the SNP, will take seats from Labour in Scotland reducing Miliband's pathetic lead and putting Britain's smartest political brain in a position to decide the balance of power.

No coalitions.The Libs are damaged goods, UKIP have BO and only two seats, and the Greens a lot of Liberal votes (they love being right but impotent) but no seats. 

Labour and the SNP are mortal enemies in Scotland. So Alex will offer support to Labour on a "confidence and supply" basis.

Which takes us back to a 1910 situation when Asquith's Liberals were forced to depend on the Irish Nationalists who made them concede Home Rule as the price for their support. Interesting analogy.

As Asquith said "wait and see".


  1. Agree with you about the Scottish result; the SNP will be in a poll position after May 7th. There will be no participation in any coalition but a limited accommodation with Labour. This will happen because Labour will be too worried about "swing voters" in the South of England to cut a bigger deal (e.g., involving scrapping Trident).

    Do note that Miliband will be dealing with whoever is leading the SNP Westminster group (currently Angus Robertson MP) and that Alex Salmond will be a (formidable) backbencher. When Robertson meets Miliband he will bring Nicola Sturgeon in to agree a deal; the SNP is not a "London party". The SNP deputy leader, Stuart Hosie, is also a Westminster MP, so he is likely to be involved.

    About England: the FPTP system means UKIP could pile up loadsavotes but not have a single seat; however if that vote is concentrated in some South Coast seats they could get more than two (maybe double figures?) The Greens already have one impressive MP; Caroline Lucas should hold on in marginal Brighton and there will be an increased Green vote elsewhere, made up of disillusioned "protest vote" Liberals and "still here" socialists like myself.

    The Lib Dems are "damaged goods" true, but if Clegg loses in Sheffield Hallam (if Labour cannot win a set in Sheffield they really ought to give up) and if the SNP cut up Alexander in Inverness, and if Cable holds on in Twickenham, then Miliband and Cable might get an "understanding" together - and then talk to the SNP.

  2. Quite right Bob. Agree with you. Except that the Tories will win Hallam.

  3. It was a Tory seat in the 1980s, is that right?

  4. Indeed. John Osborn was the MP until 1987.